When the US started striking Iranian nuclear facilities in April 2026, most people's first thought wasn't about their mortgage. Fair enough. But if you're buying a house, remortgaging, or coming off a fixed rate in the next few months, it's worth understanding why events in the Middle East can end up affecting what you pay every month.
We're not political commentators. But we are mortgage brokers, and we've been watching the rates market closely since this kicked off. Here's what we're seeing.
The chain: oil to inflation to rates
It works like this. Iran is a major oil producer. When there's conflict in the region, oil supply gets disrupted or markets expect it to be disrupted. That pushes crude prices up.
Higher oil prices feed into everything: petrol, energy bills, shipping costs, food prices. That means inflation goes up. And when inflation goes up, the Bank of England is less likely to cut interest rates, or may even raise them.
Mortgage rates are priced off swap rates, which reflect where the market thinks the base rate will be over the next 2, 5 or 10 years. So even before the Bank of England does anything, mortgage pricing can shift because of what traders expect to happen.
That's the short version. Oil goes up, inflation expectations rise, swap rates tick up, and lenders pull their cheapest deals or reprice them higher.
What's actually happened to rates?
In the two weeks since the strikes began, we've seen a handful of lenders pull products and reprice. Not dramatically, but enough to notice. Five-year fixes that were available at around 4.1% have edged up to 4.3-4.4% with some lenders. Two-year fixes have moved a similar amount.
Trackers and variable rates haven't moved yet because the base rate hasn't changed. But the market is now pricing in fewer base rate cuts for the rest of 2026 than it was a month ago.
This doesn't mean rates are about to spike. What it means is that the rate cuts people were expecting later this year might come slower, or might not come at all if the situation gets worse.
Should I lock in a rate now?
This is the question we're getting ten times a day at the moment. And the honest answer is: it depends on your situation.
If you're coming off a fixed rate in the next 3 to 6 months, it's worth starting the conversation now. Most lenders let you lock in a rate up to 6 months before your current deal ends. If rates go down, you can often switch to a better product before completion. If they go up, you're protected.
If you're mid-purchase and haven't locked a rate yet, don't panic, but don't drag your feet either. The best deals tend to disappear first when markets get twitchy.
If you're not due to remortgage for another year or more, there's no point trying to time the market based on geopolitics. Nobody predicted this conflict six months ago, and nobody knows how it'll play out.
What about house prices?
So far, the conflict hasn't had a visible effect on house prices. The UK housing market is driven more by domestic factors like wages, housing supply, and mortgage availability than by international events.
That could change if the situation drags on and causes a broader economic slowdown. But we're not there yet, and there's no point making decisions based on worst-case scenarios.
Buy to let impact
For landlords, the picture is similar. If BTL rates stay where they are or creep up, your stress test calculations get tighter. That might mean you need a bigger deposit or a lower purchase price to make the numbers work.
On the other hand, if economic uncertainty puts more people off buying, rental demand could increase. That's been the pattern in previous periods of uncertainty, and it tends to support rental yields.
What we're telling our clients
- Don't panic. Rate movements so far have been modest. This isn't a repeat of the mini-budget chaos from 2022.
- If you're remortgaging soon, get the ball rolling. Securing a rate now gives you protection if things get worse. If things improve, you can switch.
- If you're buying, keep going. Pausing your purchase because of something happening 3,000 miles away rarely makes sense. Life doesn't wait for geopolitics to calm down.
- Talk to a broker, not the news. Headlines are designed to worry you. Brokers are designed to find you the best deal in the current market, whatever that looks like.
The bottom line
Global events affect mortgage rates. They always have. But the effect is usually gradual rather than dramatic, and the best thing you can do is stay informed without overreacting.
If you want to know exactly where you stand, get in touch. We'll run through your options based on what's actually available right now, not what the papers are predicting.